Research
Working papers
Working Paper
Crushing the Competition: the Pro-Competitive Effects of Relative Performance Evaluation
Guido Bongioanni, Bruno Pellegrino, Shihan Shen
Presentations: SIOE 2023, UChicago Stigler Center Affiliate Conference, EUI, Rice Brownbag, Oligo Workshop 2025, CICM 2025, SED 2025, SEA 2025, Network Science and Economics Conference 2026, EEA-ESEM 2026
Relative Performance Evaluation (RPE) is a feature of executive compensation that evaluates a manager’s performance relative to peer firms. Economic theory predicts that, under sufficient risk sharing between managers and shareholders, firms that adopt RPE should engage in more aggressive product-market conduct (i.e. charge lower prices). However, the extent of RPE adoption and its market effects remain disputed: firm disclosures often reference RPE, yet managers’ pay shows little correlation with competitors’ performance despite its well-documented sensitivity to market-wide shocks. We study the adoption and product-market effects of RPE using a network oligopoly model (Pellegrino, 2025) with ultra-realistic managerial incentives, disciplined by granular data from over 350,000 executive compensation contracts. We find that RPE is widespread in form but limited in substance: pay remains tied mainly to absolute objectives, and relative performance is typically benchmarked against broad stock-market indices rather than close rivals. These adoption patterns substantially dampen RPE’s competitive impact, reconciling the seemingly contradictory evidence. Counterfactual simulations indicate that stronger, rival-based RPE could enhance competition and consumer welfare, but such effects remain modest under current practices.
Working Paper
When National Priorities Are Not European Priorities: A Note on Industrial Policy in Europe's Production Network
Guido Bongioanni, Tuna Dökmeci
Governments often need to choose which sectors deserve priority when industrial policy cannot support everything at once. Rankings are one way to make that choice explicit. This note ranks sectors using distortion centrality: a production-network measure that gives higher priority to sectors where a policy wedge, bottleneck, or productivity improvement would have larger effects through input-output linkages. The question is whether sectors that look most important from a national perspective are also the sectors that matter most for the EU as a whole. Using Eurostat FIGARO, we build a 2010–2023 panel of EU27 country-sectors and compare national distortion-centrality rankings with EU-wide rankings. EU-wide priorities are very stable, but they are not the same as national priorities. Adjacent-year EU-wide rank correlations average 0.992, while the average national-versus-EU percentile-rank gap is 0.262. For policy, national rankings identify domestic bottlenecks; EU-wide rankings identify sectors whose importance comes from cross-border supply-chain links.
Work in progress
Game, Set and Match: Playing, Learning, and Retiring in Professional Tennis
With Christopher J. Flinn and Pietro Garibaldi.
This paper investigates the timing of retirement in high-intensity occupations where performance signals are noisy and agents must learn about their latent ability. Using a rich monthly panel of almost 10,000 professional tennis players from 1995 to 2021, we characterize the relationship between performance trajectories and career exits. We document three robust stylized facts: (1) careers are generally short, with a median duration of two years, and highly right-skewed; (2) career length is positively correlated with peak ability; and (3) players typically retire following a decline from their peak performance rather than at the peak. Survival analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity, where lower-ranked players exit rapidly while elite players sustain careers into their thirties. These patterns suggest that retirement decisions are driven significantly by an information-updating process regarding competitive fit, distinct from pure age-related physical decline. We then estimate a Bayesian learning model of optimal retirement in which players infer their latent ability from noisy seasonal performance, and in which the value of the outside option is allowed to vary, parsimoniously, over the career. A two-stage maximum likelihood procedure recovers the distribution of initial beliefs from the selection-free distribution of first-year performance and a three-step tenure profile of the outside option from observed exit decisions. The estimated model reproduces the short, right-skewed distribution of career lengths and both the level and the front-loaded shape of exit rates over the first fifteen seasons, including the pronounced first-season spike that a constant outside option cannot match.
Teaching
Teaching experience
European University Institute — Mini Course on Two Period Models in Macro (Summer School).
Main Instructor. Summers 2024, 2025, and 2026.
European University Institute — Simulation-Based Econometrics (Graduate Core).
Teaching Assistant for Professor Russell Cooper. Spring 2024.
NYU Florence — Econometrics (Undergraduate).
Teaching Assistant for Professor Giampiero Gallo. Fall 2023.